When Prediction Fails: Why Quantum-AI-Blockchain Dreams Miss the Social Reality

A sociological perspective on why technical solutions keep missing the human element

The Hype Moment

Consider this recent announcement from the Boston Global Forum’s “Boston Plurality Summit“: they’re unveiling an “AIWS Bank and Digital Assets Model” that combines quantum AI, blockchain technology, and predictive analytics to “unite humanity through technology”. You know that the canary in my head is shouting “unite what?, how?”. The press release promises “zero-latency transactions”, “quantum AI for predictive analytics”, and a “global blockchain network” that will somehow revolutionise banking.

As someone who studies sociotechnical systems, this announcement is fascinating—not for what it promises to deliver, but for what it reveals about our persistent fantasy that human behaviour can be engineered, predicted, and optimised through technological solutions.

::Pats head – Provides tissue::

The Technical House of Cards

Let’s start with a question of technical possibilities. “Zero-latency transactions” on a global blockchain network defies current technological reality. This was my first eyebrow raise. According to recent analysis, even the fastest blockchains operate with latency measured in hundreds of milliseconds to seconds, whilst Visa reportedly has the theoretical capacity to execute more than 65,000 transactions per second compared to Solana’s 2024 rate of 1,200-4,000 TPS and Ethereum’s roughly 15-30 TPS. Gas fees during network congestion can spike to significant sums per transaction. On Ethereum, fees can exceed 20USD during peak times, with some transactions reaching extreme levels like 377 gwei, and historical spikes exceeding 100USD during events like NFT mania. Even on the much cheaper Solana network, which typically costs around 0.0028USD per transaction, fees can occasionally spike during congestion—hardly the foundation for revolutionary banking.

Then there’s the “quantum AI” buzzword. Theoretically quantum computing could actually break most current blockchain cryptography rather than enhance it. The blockchain community is scrambling to develop quantum-resistant algorithms precisely because quantum computers pose an existential threat to current security models. Adding AI on top makes even less sense—if quantum computing could handle complex optimisation and verification tasks, what would AI add?

But the technical contradictions aren’t the most interesting part. What’s fascinating is the underlying assumption that human financial behaviour follows discoverable mathematical patterns that can be optimised through technological intervention.

The Pattern Recognition Fantasy

This assumption reflects a deeper misunderstanding about the nature of patterns in human systems. Which I should know, because I study them. In physical systems—planetary orbits, gravitational forces, electromagnetic fields—patterns emerge because they’re constrained by unchanging laws. Newton’s and Einstein’s equations work because there are actual forces creating predictable relationships. The mathematics describes underlying physical reality.

Human systems operate fundamentally differently. What we call “patterns” in human behaviour might be statistical accidents emerging from millions of independent, context-dependent choices. Your shopping behaviour isn’t governed by fundamental forces—it’s shaped by your mood, what ad you saw, whether you got enough sleep, a conversation with a friend, cultural context, economic pressures, and countless other variables.

Consider the difference between how neural networks and quantum computing approach pattern recognition. Neural networks are essentially sophisticated approximation engines—they learn patterns through massive trial-and-error, requiring enormous datasets and computational brute force to produce probabilistic outputs that can be wrong. They’re like having thousands of people manually checking every possible combination to find a pattern.

Quantum computing, by contrast, approaches problems through superposition—exploring multiple solution paths simultaneously to understand the underlying mathematical structure that creates patterns in the first place. It’s elegant, precise, and powerful for problems with discoverable mathematical relationships. However, quantum computing currently requires predictable, structured datasets and struggles with the messy, unstructured nature of real-world human data. This is precisely why we still rely on neural networks’ “brute force” approximation approach for dealing with human behaviour—they’re designed to handle noise, inconsistency, and randomness where quantum algorithms would falter.

But what if much real-world human data has no underlying mathematical structure to discover?

Consider this: as I write this analysis, my brain is simultaneously processing quantum mechanics concepts, blockchain technicalities, sociological theory, and source credibility – all whilst maintaining a critical perspective and personal voice. No quantum algorithm exploring mathematical solution spaces could replicate this messy, contextual, creative synthesis. My thinking emerges from countless variables: morning coffee levels, recent conversations, cultural background, academic training, even the frustration of marking student essays that often demonstrates exactly the kind of linear thinking I’m critiquing. This is precisely the kind of complex, non-algorithmic pattern recognition that human systems excel at – and that technological solutions consistently underestimate.

The Emergence of Sociotechnical Complexity

As a sociologist studying sociotechnical imbrications, I’m fascinated by how technology and social structures become so intertwined that they create emergent properties that couldn’t be predicted from either component alone. Human behaviour has emergent regularities rather than underlying laws. People facing similar social pressures might develop similar strategies, but not because of fundamental behavioural programming—because they’re creative problem-solvers working within constraints.

This is why prediction based on historical data can only take you so far. I call my sociological practice “nowcasting”— we have to understand the present moment to have any sense of future potentialities. And we often don’t — I speculate this is because we are more wrapped up in the surface stories we tell ourselves, denial and a refusal to see or accept ourselves as we really are. This challenge is becoming even more complex as AI generates synthetic media that we then consume and respond to, creating a recursive loop where artificial representations of social reality shape actual social behaviour, which in turn feeds back into AI systems to create more synthetic reality. The way people respond to constraints can’t be predicted because their responses literally create new social realities.

Every new payment app, social media trend, or economic crisis creates new ways people think about and use money that couldn’t have been predicted from previous data. Netflix can’t predict what you’ll want to watch because your preferences are being shaped by what Netflix shows you. Financial models break down because they change how people think about money. Social media algorithms can’t predict engagement because they’re constantly reshaping what people find engaging.

Boundaries as Resonant Interiors

I like playing with complexity theory because provides useful language for understanding these dynamics. This is of course despite its generation within the natural sciences that does rely on the explanatory nature of underlying forces. What it offers me is a language that moves beyond linear cause-and-effect relationships, we see tipping points where small changes cascade into system-wide transformations, phase transitions where systems reorganise into entirely new configurations, and edge-of-chaos dynamics where systems are complex enough to be creative but stable enough to maintain coherence.

Most importantly, I argue that boundaries in sociotechnical systems aren’t fixed containers but resonant interiors through which the future emerges. For example the “boundary” between online and offline life or them and us isn’t a barrier—it’s a dynamic and embedded space of daily practice where different forces interact and amplify each other, generating new forms of identity, relationship, and community.

Traditional prediction models assume boundaries are stable containers, but in sociotechnical systems, boundaries themselves are generative sites of creativity and liminality. The meaningful social dynamics don’t happen within any single platform, but in the interstitial spaces people navigate across platforms – the resonant zones where technology, user behaviour, cultural norms, economic pressures, and regulatory responses intersect and interact. While any analogy risks oversimplifying these complex dynamics, I think this framing helps us understand how the spaces of social emergence resist containment within discrete technological boundaries.

Taking this all back to the start, this is why the quantum-AI-blockchain banking proposal is so problematic beyond its technical contradictions. It assumes human behaviour follows discoverable mathematical patterns that can be optimised through technological intervention, when really human systems operate through creative emergence at unstable boundaries (protoboundaries). The most profound patterns in complex systems aren’t elegant mathematical truths waiting to be discovered by quantum computers, but emergent properties of countless small, contextual, creative human responses to constraints.

The Methodological Challenge

This creates a fundamental methodological challenge for anyone trying to engineer human behaviour through technology. Traditional data science assumes stable underlying patterns, but sociotechnical systems are constantly bootstrapping themselves into new configurations. Each response to constraints becomes a new constraint, creating recursive feedback loops that generate genuinely novel possibilities.

It’s so reassuring and containable to think there’s a predictable human nature with universal drivers of behaviour—hence the appeal of “behavioural engineering” that targets fundamental motivations. But anthropologists point out that kinship structures, cultural values, and cosmological worldviews direct human behaviour, and these are shaped differently by context and society. The patterns that emerge from data depend heavily on the sources of that data and how things are measured, producing different results across diverse populations even for apparently similar instances.

Toward Sociological Nowcasting

Instead of trying to predict outcomes, sociology becomes about understanding patterns of social organisation through resonant potentials within current boundary conditions. What creative possibilities are emerging in the tensions between existing constraints? How are people making sense of their current technological moment, and what range of responses might that generate?

This doesn’t mean patterns don’t exist in human systems—but they’re emergent properties of ongoing creative problem-solving rather than expressions of underlying mathematical laws. The parallels we see across different contexts emerge not from universal human programming but from people facing similar structural pressures and developing similar strategies within their particular cultural and technological constraints.

So I think it is worth repeating: the most profound patterns in complex systems aren’t elegant mathematical truths waiting to be discovered, but emergent properties of countless small, irrational, contextual human decisions. The universe might be mathematical, but human society might not be—and that’s not a bug to be fixed through better algorithms, but a fundamental feature of what makes us human.

Conclusion: Engineering Dreams vs. Social Realities

The persistent appeal of technological solutions like the AIWS bank reveals our deep discomfort with uncertainty and emergent complexity. We want to believe that the right combination of algorithms can make human behaviour predictable and optimisable. But sociotechnical systems resist such engineering precisely because they’re sites of ongoing creativity and emergence.

This doesn’t mean technology doesn’t shape social life—of course it does. But it shapes it through imbrication, not determination. Technology becomes meaningful as it gets woven into existing social fabrics, interpreted through cultural lenses, and adapted to particular contexts in ways that generate new possibilities neither the technology nor the social context could have produced alone.

Understanding these dynamics requires sociological nowcasting rather than algorithmic prediction—deep qualitative engagement with how people are currently making sense of their technological moment, what constraints they’re navigating, and what creative possibilities are emerging at the boundaries of current systems.

I believe that our collective goal is sustainable relations with each other and the planet we live within and desire to thrive through. To get there I think we need to acknowledge these realities and move beyond the iron cage of the thinking we are in. The future isn’t waiting to be discovered through quantum computing or predicted through AI. It’s being invented moment by moment through countless acts of creative problem-solving within evolving sociotechnical constraints. And that’s both more uncertain and more hopeful than any algorithm could ever be.

Web3: Beyond the Hype – Understanding the Future of Our Digital Lives

Cover design by Daphne Piper

Insider and Outsider Cultures in Web3

The headlines are filled with stories about Web3, cryptocurrencies, and the metaverse. Some herald these technologies as our salvation from Big Tech’s dominance, while others dismiss them as elaborate scams. But what if there’s a more nuanced story to tell?

After a decade of researching digital communities and emerging technologies, I’m excited to announce the release of my new book “Insider and Outsider Cultures in Web3: Data Ownership, Transparency and Privacy.” This work cuts through the hype to examine what Web3 technologies actually tell us about our digital future.

Why This Book Matters Now

We’re at a critical moment in the evolution of the internet. Issues of data privacy, digital surveillance, and platform control have become kitchen table conversations. Meanwhile, Web3 has emerged as a controversial answer to these challenges, promising a more decentralised and user-controlled digital future.

But rather than taking sides in the Web3 debate, my book uses these technologies as a lens to understand what people actually want from the future internet. Through extensive research and real-world case studies, I explore how Web3 serves as “social proof” – evidence of our collective desires for greater data ownership, privacy, and freedom from centralised control.

What You’ll Find Inside

The book takes you on a journey through the Web3 landscape, from its origins in cryptographic cultures to its current experimental implementations. You’ll discover:

  • How early crypto communities shaped Web3’s development and values
  • Why entrepreneurs and regulators often talk past each other in this space
  • What happened when Bitcoin became legal tender in El Salvador
  • How decentralised infrastructure projects are reimagining the internet
  • What Web3 tells us about inclusion and exclusion in digital futures

Rather than offering simple answers, the book examines the tensions between idealistic visions and practical challenges, between insider and outsider perspectives, and between innovation and regulation.

Beyond the Technology

This isn’t just a book about blockchain or cryptocurrencies. It’s an exploration of how we might reshape our digital world to better serve human needs and values. Through careful analysis of real-world cases, I illuminate the broader questions Web3 raises about:

  • Who should control our digital lives and data?
  • How can we balance innovation with protection?
  • What does genuine digital inclusion look like?
  • How might we govern emerging technologies?
  • What role should communities play in shaping digital futures?

A Call to Action

The future of the internet isn’t set in stone – it will be shaped by our collective choices and actions. This book provides the contextual understanding needed to participate meaningfully in these crucial discussions.

Whether you’re a technology enthusiast, policy maker, entrepreneur, or simply someone who cares about our digital future, you’ll find insights to inform your engagement with these important issues. The book offers practical considerations for:

  • Developing flexible regulatory frameworks
  • Fostering responsible innovation
  • Promoting genuine inclusion
  • Building sustainable digital infrastructure
  • Engaging broader public participation

Join the Conversation

As we navigate the next evolution of the internet, we need informed and nuanced discussions about our digital future. This book contributes to that dialogue by moving beyond simplistic narratives to examine the real possibilities and challenges Web3 presents.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts and engaging in discussions about the future we want to build. You can find the book here – ask your local library to stock it.

Keep an eye out for launch events that I’ll share at the start of 2025

Navigating the Crossroads: GenAI, Youth Online Safety, and the Future of Web3

Do you feel like we’re at a crossroads in what the internet is and how we want it to be in the future? But really, I feel like we are down in the weeds, trying to thrash out the details on a minute by minute basis.

Artificial intelligence is argued to reshape our digital landscape, with it being usefully referred to as synthetic media. That stuff is surreal. But sometimes cool. Like isn’t it funny that you could take this post and ask a GenAI tool to make it more spooky, or a fairy tale. Please feel free.

There’s some interesting questions that it gives rise to. For example, how much of our online content is going to actually have any link to our material realities and at what point will it start consuming itself?… and us along with it.

Meanwhile governments continue to grapple with “old” media formats of Web 2.0 and protecting youth online (a risk versus harm debate as danah boyd usefully points out). The intersection of technology and society has never been more complex or consequential. As we stand at this pivotal point, let’s ensure that we are spicing up our opinions about policy and emerging tech trends with expert perspectives.

A shocking perspective, I know. It’s all very emotive, political and important to talk about keeping our kids safe online, however I just wanted to flag a few things. For the debate around the child ban on social media being bandied around by the Australian government currently, I have appreciated the informed commentary by academics and advocates, Tama Leaver, Johnathon Hutchinson and Justine Humphry. If you want to really look at a balanced perspective, they offer it. Just remember that children have digital rights too … and also that if the ban is not enforceable, what impact will it actually have?

For myself, I’ve spent the last year putting all my writing energy into a Web3 case study that unpacks what people care about in the online environment and what the implications are of this for the future of the internet. You ‘ll be able to read all about this from November in my forthcoming book “Insider and Outsider Cultures in Web3″ with Emerald. It was a labour of love and is essentially my wrap up of the last 10 years of research practice talking blockchain, crypto and decentralised technologies pushing at our digital frontiers.

More on this later, this is just a taster post to say, ‘still kicking here’. But I’m probably a bit too busy looking at the impacts of GenAI tools in education and in our schools.